A recent Eurocontrol study determined that Europe averages about one runway incursion a day and one potentially very serious runway incursion every 14 days. An FAA study of data from 1997 to 2001 showed similar numbers for the United States. Many organizations believe that the problem of runway incursions must be attacked or it is bound to increase with an increase in world aviation activity. In fact, the number of reported incursions has been increasing at a faster rate than the number of flights worldwide has been increasing. One study group determined that a 20 percent increase in aircraft operating at a particular airport produced a 140 percent increase in the possibility of runway incursions. Other studies have used mathematical models which predict a big increase in the potential for runway incursions in the next twenty years. Some Statistics EuroControl Statistical Reference Area (ERSA) has the following data for the number of runway incursions per million flights: ? 1998 – 3 incursions per million flights ? 1999 – 6 incursions per million flights ? 2000 – 10 incursions per million flights ? 2001 – 23 incursions per million flights ? 2002 – 21 incursions per million flights ? 2003 – 40 incursions per million flights Several organizations , including the FAA and EuroControl, had similar data on the major cause of reported runway incursions: ? Pilot Error was determined to be the cause in 51 percent of all reported runway incursions. ? Vehicle or Pedestrian Error was determined to be the cause in 29 percent of reported incursions. ? Controller Error was determined to be the cause in 20 percent of reported incursions.EuroControl also classified several years of runway incursion reports according to seriousness. Their data was similar to FAA data using a similar classification: ? About 31% of reported incursions were classified as having No Risk. ? Another 34% were classified as having Some Risk . ? And 30% were classified as having Significant Risk. That totals 95%. ? The other 5% of reported Incursions were classified as being Extremely Hazardous. We will be coming back to look more carefully at some of this data later in the module. And we will look in great detail at most of the causal factors and at some real world.1. One potentially very serious runway incursion happened everydays according to a recent Eurocontrol study.